When Brazilian marathon runner Vanderlei de Lima lit the torch in Rio on Friday, it marked the latest chapter in NBC’s decades-long bet on the commercial success of the Olympic Games. 上周五，巴西马拉松运动员范德莱德利马(Vanderlei de Lima)在里大约熄灭火炬（见上图），标志着美国全国广播公司(NBC)对奥林匹克运动会(Olympic Games)商业顺利的数十年押注盖住近期一章。The media group, which is owned by Comcast, paid $7.8bn to extend its deal to broadcast the Olympics until 2032, having started airing the games in 1964. 康卡斯特(Comcast)旗下的这家媒体集团耗资78亿美元将转播奥运会的合约缩短至2032年。

NBC从1964年开始转播奥运会。For television companies like NBC, keen to dismiss pessimism over their future, the stakes for blockbuster events such as the Olympics have scarcely been higher. 对于NBC这样热衷驱赶环绕其未来的乐观情绪的电视公司而言，押注奥运会这类盛大赛事的赌局未曾像现在这么低。As audiences scatter across a growing choice of screens and stream their favourite shows days or weeks after they air, live sports are viewed as a rare safe bet for traditional television. Steve Burke, NBC chief executive, predicted Rio would be the most profitable Olympics in history.随着观众面临的屏幕自由选择日益激增、而且可以在播映数天乃至数周后观赏自己青睐的节目，运动赛事实况直播被视作传统电视绝佳的安全性赌局。

NBC首席执行官(CEO)史蒂夫伯克(Steve Burke)预计，里大约奥运将沦为史上最赚的一届奥运会。The network says it has already sold a record $1.2bn in advertising — 20 per cent more than final revenues from the London games in 2012, even as television audiences have shrunk by a third since then. NBC称之为，广告销售额早已超过创纪录的12亿美元——比2012年伦敦奥运的最后广告收益多20%，尽管自那以来电视观众数量削减了三分之一。In comparison, yearly television advertising sales have grown less than 6 per cent since 2012, according to Nielsen.据尼尔森(Nielsen)数据表明，相比之下，自2012年以来，年度电视广告销售快速增长严重不足6%。More than three-quarters of sales for Rio came from primetime television buys, which had “gone up a bit” versus London thanks to expectations for higher ratings, said Seth Winter, vice-president of ad sales at NBC. NBC广告销售副总裁里斯思温兹(Seth Winter)称之为，多达四分之三的里大约奥运销售来自黄金时段广告，该比例较伦敦奥运“下降了一些”，归功于本届奥运会的预期收视率更高。

Big cultural moments where groups of people sit down to watch the TV have become more scarce in recent years, prompting the spike in interest from advertisers, said Colleen Leddy of Droga5, an agency that made an Olympics ad featuring swimmer Michael Phelps for Under Armour. “Brands dont think about TV in the way they used to, because it’s not the only medium any more, but events like the Olympics prove that TV is still king.” 广告公司Droga5的科琳莱迪(Colleen Leddy)称之为，近年来，能让成群的人们围坐在电视机旁的根本性文化时刻越来越少了，这使得广告商对奥运会的兴趣陡增。“品牌仍然像过去一样看来电视了，因为它仍然是唯一的媒介，但是奥运会这样的盛事证明电视依然为王。”Droga5曾多次制作由游泳运动员迈克尔菲尔普斯(Michael Phelps)为Under Armour代言的奥运会广告。

“The value to ad buyers is much higher than it was four years ago,” says Bill Day of Frank N Magid associates, which consults to broadcasters. “It’s hard to find those massive bulks of consumers anywhere, let alone in a dedicated time-defined space. In 1978, a third of households tuned in to watch Bonanza each week.” “奥运会对广告买家的价值比4年前低得多，”为广播公司获取咨询的Frank N Magid Associates公司的比尔戴着(Bill Day)称之为，“无论在哪都很难寻找消费者集中于的场合，更加不必托在某个特定时段了。1978年，三分之一的家庭每周都会收听《伯南扎的牛仔》(Bonanza)。”NBC is set to air a whopping 6,700 hours of live coverage from Rio across 11 channels and dozens of live streams. It is the equivalent of watching every NFL game since 2008, according to Brian Roberts, Comcast chief executive. This is expected to lift viewership after much of the London coverage was broadcast on delayed tapes, prompting outcry from audiences when results emerged on social media first. NBC将在11个频道、数十个直播流媒体对里大约奥运会展开长达6700个小时的现场直播。

据康卡斯特CEO布莱恩罗伯茨(Brian Roberts)回应，这相等于观赏美国国家橄榄球联盟(NFL)自2008年以来的全部比赛。伦敦奥运会的大部分赛事都是以延后录播的形式转播，播映时比赛结果早已首度在社交媒体上发布，这引起了观众的强烈抗议。里大约奥运会以现场直播方式播映，预计将提高收视率。

However, analysts are sceptical that the boosts from events like the Olympics can thwart the tide of cord-cutting, falling cable audiences and declining advertising revenues.然而，对于奥运会等赛事的提振效果能否反败为胜订户退订、有线电视观众数量下降以及广告收益下降的大趋势，分析师们所持猜测态度。Television owners have had reason to be optimistic so far this summer. This year’s so-called upfronts, at which television networks lure a large chunk of advertising commitments from buyers, saw bookings rise across the large broadcasters — ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox — after three years of declines. Networks have also seen ratings inflated by coverage of the US presidential race. 今天目前为止，电视广播公司的东家有理由悲观。

从今年的预售（电视广播公司更有买家做出大量广告允诺）可以显现出，在经历了3年下降后，美国广播公司(ABC)、哥伦比亚广播公司(CBS)、NBC和福克斯(Fox)等大型电视广播公司的预售都有所增加。电视广播公司还找到，美国总统竞选的涉及报导提升了收视率。

But the question looming over media owners is whether these larger audiences can be sustained once the fanfare has ended. 但是后遗症这些媒体东家的问题是，当这一切喧闹完结后，电视能否觅不断扩大的观众群体。“The stage is set for a dramatic decline (in TV advertising) in 2017, when both political spending and Olympics-spend disappear,” said Rich Greenfield of BTIG. “Ratings are still pretty horrible. The media industry’s problem is there isn’t an Olympics every week.” “2017年（电视广告）预计将经常出现明显下降，因为那时将丧失政治广告投放和奥运会广告，”BTIG的里奇格林菲尔德(Rich Greenfield)称之为，“收视率依然很差劲。

媒体行业的问题是，不是每周都有奥运会。”There is little sign that the cord-cutting trend is waning. In the second quarter of this year, some of the largest cable and satellite providers — Verizon, ATT, Comcast and Dish — shed a combined 375,000 TV customers.没什么迹象指出有线用户退订的趋势在弱化。今年第二季度，一些最大规模的有线电视和卫星电视提供商——Verizon、ATT、康卡斯特和Dish——总计萎缩了37.5万电视顾客。

Meanwhile, digital advertising is projected to outpace television advertising for the first time next year, as brands look to reach a younger generation that has eschewed cable boxes in favour of streaming video. 与此同时，随着各品牌期望看清那些蒙羞有线电视盒、转而青睐流视频的年轻一代，预计明年数字化广告将首次打破电视广告。Nearly 8 in 10 millennials said they would stream the Olympics live online, and 7 in 10 would do so on a mobile phone, according to a survey by the Rubicon Project. Rubicon Project的调查表明，在千禧一代中，每10个人里有8个人回应不会在网上观赏奥运会直播，有7个人将在手机上观赏直播。NBC has acknowledged the need to appeal to cord-cutters, even as it holds a tight grip over Olympics coverage. The network has for the first time allowed some social media companies, such as Snapchat and Facebook, rights to distribute highlights and clips of athlete interviews to drum up interest for the games. NBC否认更有退订用户的必要性，即使它牢牢地攥寄居了奥运会转播权。

该电视广播公司首次容许Snapchat和Facebook等社交媒体公布精彩场面和运动员专访片段，以此想起人们对奥运会的兴趣。Meanwhile, Comcast is focused on capitalising on the Olympics frenzy to convince its customers of the value of their monthly cable TV bill. 与此同时，康卡斯特于是以专心于利用这股奥运热情向其客户证明他们每月有线电视账单的价值。The largest US cable-TV provider is pumping out Olympics coverage through its new high-tech cable box, called the X1 — a robot-esque TV guide that Comcast compares to Amazon’s digital assistant, Alexa. The X1 will provide “one integrated Olympics dashboard”, through which viewers can speak commands into a remote to search between live cable programmes, digitally streamed highlight reels and videos, and real-time scoreboards. The box has been rolled out to about 40 per cent of Comcast’s 22m video subscribers. 这家美国仅次于的有线电视提供商于是以通过其新款高科技有线盒子运送奥运直播内容。

这款取名为X1的盒子是机器人般的电视指南，康卡斯特将其与亚马逊(Amazon)的数字化助手Alexa相提并论。X1将获取“构建的奥运会仪表盘”，观众可以向遥控器讲出指令，在有线直播节目、数字化精彩集锦流视频和动态奖牌榜之间搜寻。在康卡斯特2200万视频订户中，大约有40%的订户用于这款盒子。Comcast’s chief has called the X1’s Olympics platform a “laboratory” for the “future of television”. The 53-year-old company, which lost 4,000 TV customers last quarter, has placed a $7.8bn gamble that he will be proven right. 康卡斯特的CEO称之为X1的奥运平台是探寻“未来电视”的实验室。

这家享有53年历史的公司在上个季度丧失了4000个电视顾客，它押注了78亿美元开玩笑其CEO辨别准确。

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